The Warning:  If you have no desire to learn anything about the Residential Real Estate Market in the Nashville Area, the Midsouth, and/or the U.S.A as a whole, do Not read any further.

 The Apology:  My friend and real estate video Guru, Brian Copeland tells me all the time, "keep it short and fast JB, so that everyone won't quit reading!".....Unfortunately, this is more like a semester of a University 100 level Econ. class, condensed into 5 minutes of reading, so I'm not going to be able to take that good advice this time.....sorry

The Reason:  I am tired of listening to the Negative spin in the media, the complaining of some agents with overpriced homes listed, and Sellers who want it sold Now, when it might take a year at this price.

The Mission:  To share some of the data, prepared by professionals, which show the population growth we are experiencing Now, and to let you know why many in my world of full-time, professional, Residential Realtors are still working hard every day with a Positive attitude.

The Data: Most of what I say is just that, my opinion.  It just happens that I am right most of the time when it comes to our Local, Nashville real estate market.  Any population and/or sales numbers (that are not my own) come from the TN Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, the U.S. Census Bureau, and limited data from Realtracs, our local MLS.

The Disclaimer:  I speak only for me and my team.  I do not speak for Village Real Estate Services, where I have my Broker's license, or for the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, where I am finishing my last year on the Board of Directors.

Now that you've read all of that, you deserve to learn something.....here we go!

Real Estate is Local.  Said it before and I will say it again.  What we are currently doing in Area 2 of Nashville has almost Nothing to do with the market in Lavergne, Chattanooga, or Las Vegas.

Real Estate is Cyclical.  Don't know why.  If population grows steadily in America, then housing sales should also grow steadily, right?  Wrong.  Some markets increase, some decrease.  That's just the way it is.  Truth is, they all go up eventually.  If you don't believe that, you should go back and do some research on the history of this country.

Yearly home sale numbers are are a function of many different influences.  Not going to go into all of that now, but think about Global Economy, National Economy, Local Economics, International Banking, Local Banking, the Stock Market, International Peace, Mortgage Rates, Unemployment Rates, Climate Change, Terrorism, etc, etc.....you get the picture.

Local markets are a function of much more understandable issues:  State and City leadership and policies, local economy, specific business success or failure, unemployment, weather, crime, schools, etc......right?

OK, now you know most of what you need to know.

Supply and Demand.  This is the basis for everything.  It doesn't matter what Government or Private Industry does, Supply and Demand always rules the day in the end.  "If you build it, they will come" worked for a Baseball Field, Not for housing.   Sorry, I take that back...they will come, they are coming, they just may not come when you want or need them to come.  Understand?  "Location, Location, Location" only applies to Right Now!  You still with me?  If you had built a 500 home subdivision 20 miles north of Atlanta 20 years ago, you would have failed, and the bank would have owned it and sold it to someone who held it for later.  You could have built it in 2000 and sold them all in 2 yrs.  If you built it in 2007-09 you may still have a bunch of them, Get it?

OK, now you know more than most Builders/Developers and Bankers.

I am going to attach 2 reports to this Note, if I can figure out how to do it.  They show the Projected Population Growth for TN and for America.  If you read them like I do, you will agree that we don't have a problem......Wait.....sure, if you are currently unemployed, you have a problem, and I wish I could help.  I'm talking about our country and specifically our city, Nashville.  Study the History before you call me and start criticizing.  We grew, we are still growing, we will continue to grow.

Don't believe it?  You are unteachable and should not read further.  If you have your feelings hurt, don't call.

There are going to be approximately 313 Million people in America in 2011.  That is up about 3 M from 2010.  The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that we will grow that same 3M (just under 1%) EVERY year!  Yes, in 2020, there will be approx. 341 Million Americans.  Break it down.....Each year, approx 4.5 M are born and approx 3 M die.  Yes, 1.5M addition, and every year, approx 1.3M-1.5M immigrants come to America (feels good to be wanted huh).  Don't even approach the can o' worms of how many undocumented people are here or are coming here.....just remember, they Live somewhere.

In the Nashville Area, and the stats are for a 13 county area, the predictions are that we will grow by just under 750,000 residents in the next 20 years.  Hello....you're kidding me, right?  Where are they going to live?

"Timing, Timing, Timing" is the only thing that matters if you want to sell something Today.  Why, because Your Timing requirement is overriding your value requirement.  Therefore, the money is not as important, so, Drop the Price to Today's true Value!

Think back to your H.S. or College Psychology class.  Hope you were listening, b/c it matters.  Remember Maslow's Hierarchy of Human Needs?  After Physiological (air, food, water, and a constant body temp) comes Safety.  That includes a Place to live.  We are not going to regress from where we are.  Sure, we built homes too big, and yes, some bought more house than they needed or could afford, but everyone Needs a place to live.  Don't call me to split hairs about buying vs. renting, or I will tell you that you're missing the big picture.

So, here we are, we have solved the country's "housing crisis" as the media calls it.  Yes, many bought before they were ready or able.  Yes, governmental influence was a factor.  Yes, HGTV made everyone think they could be a successful renovator.  Yes, money was cheap and/or over 100%.  But wait, if you took out the worst 5-10 local markets, where the industry (govt, banking, mortgage, Realtors, developers, builders) let down the public, we wouldn't even have a crisis.  I Still say that Real Estate goes up and down.  When it goes down, you "suck it up" and keep going.

Answer this, and we wil solve it all.  If Population in our Country has risen and continues to rise at a Steady rate, and Everyone needs a place to live, then why must the Home Sale market go up and down?

Here is what I think.  Bankers and Builders do what they do without the proper data, caution and restraint, and then the Media freaks everyone out during the downside of the inevitable cycle.  Get over it.  We will be fine.  We don't even have enough housing in Nashville to house all of the people who will be here in the next 5 years. Why do you think the Big guys are already buying land for the next Boom?

For those of you who are in Markets that are still hurting and/or recovering, have Faith.

See you on the street.

p.s.  For those of you who don't know me, don't call or write and tell me I am delusional, as I have Already closed 18 homes and 10 new building sites this year.  That does not include what my Team Members have done.  We Are Nashville!

p.p.s.  All but one of our New homes (9 of 10) were sold before they were finished, and we got the target price on All of them.

JB

John G. Brittle, Jr.

Realtor, Broker, CRS, GRI, ABR, SFR, GREEN

Village Real Estate Services, Director of Land Sales

www.InfillNashville.com Founder and Fearless leader